1. New Meeting Date
One of the biggest things that became obvious from the meeting Tuesday, is that by mid-summer, we're all sure I will be in desperate need of another committee meeting. Originally, our next meeting wasn't scheduled until July 28th. Part of the reason for this is because Nancy summers in England with her husband . The other part is because I see the summer as a chance to really accomplish something, with as few "distractions" as possible. What was I thinking? My committee is not a distraction!...they are truly there to help me to the best of my ability. They are not just a sounding board for ideas, or a group who's only purpose is to sign a piece of paper to ensure I graduate. I think this may be the #1 mistake most graduate students make. The truth is, they are a... group of individuals, genuinely interested in my success. They are in total support of not only my research, but also my future. If I allow myself to ask for help, this whole process will prove much more fruitful.
Key Tip #6: Your committee is your most valuable asset.
Our next date is now scheduled for June 22 (with Nancy via skype). By this point my goals are to complete the preliminary literature review and the swatch analysis
2. Predicted Factors
One point that developed from our discussion was that in order to tackle such an immense body of data effectively, I must have a prediction of the trends I expect to see, and the factors that led to these trends. This brought me back to my original plan of attack (from December). It was at this time that I had planned to learn about the contributing factors first, and then analyze their effects based on the story of the samples. We realized that if I approached it this way, there would be no concrete stopping point. To combat this, we decided to approach from the other end, and I also developed Hypotheses as follows:
Hypotheses 1-4 were developed in relation to Research Objective 4:
1. Consumers influence automotive upholstery trends.
2. Suppliers influence automotive upholstery trends.
3. OEMs influence automotive upholstery trends.
4. Global Factors influence automotive upholstery trends.
Hypothesis 5 was developed in relation to Research Objective 5:
5. The decision makers in automotive upholstery are a cyclic struggle between design, engineering, and purchasing. Trends in automotive upholstery have developed based on who holds the decision-making power. (See image below)
The Factors I predict discovering in the post-analysis literature review are also included below. It is important to note that I am not limiting myself to only these, and perhaps the list will even be shorter after the analysis, but this list gives me an idea of what I can expect to find.
3. Method of Visual Analysis
I will begin with a univariate analysis of materials, structures, colors, and patterns. Below is a very rough example with made-up color data. At the bottom of each graph, I will align the influencing factors in order to see what effect they may have had on the fabrics over time. This is my very general proposed method of analysis as of today, just to present a visual model to the committee. Please keep in mind, part of my preliminary literature review involves understanding how previously published research focusing on trend cycles organized the data. I hope that a better system will develop from this information.
4. Years Covered by the Analysis
Now this is the big one!
A) Original Plan: Cover major events in the past 100 years that influenced upholstery development. Look for changes in the fabrics that reflected these events.
B) Updated Plan: Analyze 50 years of fabrics first to identify trends in Materials, Structure, and Design, and then determine what factors influenced these trends.
C) Proposed Plan: Analyze fabrics from the past 10 years and identify the influencing factors in order to design successfully in the future.
This is where I could certainly use your feedback!
It is quite the delimna for me, and needs to be decided very quickly. I understand that C is more relevant, will be more interesting for those I'm interviewing, and that they will be able to answer more precise questions (since many of them designed the majority of these fabrics), and all of this will make collecting accurate data much easier. Also, if I go with C, my analysis and factor exploration can be much more detailed.
Plan B is the big picture. I understand that it will not be possible to reach the level of detail that is possible with C, due to the volume of data. However, its the big historical events and cycles that interest me the most. I've been viewing this research as a historical analysis from the beginning, and feel that analyzing 10 years instead of 50 makes a huge difference in my goals.
I'll will graciously accept all comments and votes for these options! I have a feeling that those of you who have been through this process are going to shout out "C", but for the optimists (meaning anyone who has never written a 200-page research paper, including myself) 'B' just seems more interesting...am I right?
My Next Moves:
Even without making this crucial decision, there is much to be done!
This week I have tried to contact every known source that might possess a list of the top selling vehicles including Automotive News, Car and Driver, MotorTrend, Forbes, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the DoT Bureau of Transportation Services, Detroit News, and of course Ward's Automotive. I left messages at as many people as I could contact at the first 4, the government associations both referred me to Ward's, and the Detroit News information library laughed at me and wished me good luck! :) I finally got a call back from Ward's. They have this data beginning in 1980 (still not 1955, but it gets me 16 years closer than before!). We have been playing phone tag, but it sounds like they will be glad to let me purchase this data (joy...more $). Hearing from them has also allowed me to conclude that if they do not have a list prior to 1980, no one does (besides calling all companies individually). This means I need a new plan of attack for selecting vehicles between 1955-1979 (1 potato, 2 potato, 3 potato, 4?).
I have also met with Zoe Starling and Mary Hauser, curators at the NC State Gregg Museum. I contacted them with hopes of learning more about maintaining archives, and for advice on developing a consistent system for recording my analysis data. They referred me to the museum at FIT, which maintains a swatch collection, and to www.DocuSwatch.com. (This is certainly not a sophisticated site, but the contact information is available, and they might prove to be a valuable research).
We also spoke quite a bit about the TIMMIE collection. This collection consists of late 19th to mid 20th century American textile history. Timmie Corporation of Wilmington, NC produced home furnishings and automotive textiles in its mills from 1952-1983. In the collection are swatches of fabrics and the original specs used to communicate between the customer and supplier. Unfortunately Nancy and I are perhaps the only ones outside of the Museum staff who have spent any time with this collection, and it is hidden away in drawers without any clear organization system (which would be a huge undertaking!). This collection actually sparked my research topic, but once we decided to focus on fabrics after 1955, we also decided to stick with the De Leo and Detroit books. Viewing pieces of this collection today, did, however, reveal the opportunity to use some of the notes written on each swatch regarding customer demand and pricing in the factor stage of the post-analysis literature review.
The final goal for this weekend is to conduct a full analysis of 2004, 2005, and 2006. For each year, I will prepare the vehicle data cards and analyze the fabrics by materials, structure, and design. This information will be recorded in a database and hopefully set the format for the rest of my study.
Wow...its amazing how much you can write when you just can't stop thinking at 4 a.m.!
